Editor's note: Since Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. visit to China in January, the Philippines has had multiple maritime conflicts with China in the South China Sea. What happened? And what would happen if this trend continues? Take a look at this episode of Reality Check and find out.

During Philippine Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr.'s visit to China in January, he said that "there's a very famous African saying that when the elephants fight, the only one that loses is the grass. We might be the grass. We do not want to be in that position." That analogy sent two messages: The Philippines doesn't want to choose sides between major powers; and the Philippines doesn't want and can't pick fights with one.

That has changed. After a year of many maritime conflicts with China, Marcos Jr. now believes a "more assertive China" poses a "real challenge" to its Asian neighbors. He wants a "paradigm shift" on the Philippines' approach to the South China Sea. And he is discussing a Reciprocal Access Agreement, basically a defense pact, with Japan.

On December 20, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Philippine counterpart that the severe difficulties facing China-Philippines relations right now are rooted in the fact that the Philippine side has changed its policy stance so far, reneged on the promises it has made, constantly provoked troubles at sea, and undermined China's legitimate and lawful rights. He emphasized that the Philippine side must act with caution.

Marites Vitug, Editor-at-Large at Rappler, said in an interview that "this is the pendulum swung from when former president Duterte was in office for the past six years when he pivoted completely to China. Now, with Marcos, he's trying to reach out to both China and the U.S."

Following that analogy, the grass is picking fights with an elephant to appease the other elephant. That is irrational, ignorant to the point of insanity. Not my words, they belong to the former presidential spokesperson of the Philippines Rigoberto Tiglao.

He recently wrote an article for the Manila Times in which he laid side by side the front pages of Philippine and Vietnam newspapers. The Philippines' front pages showed the maritime conflict. Vietnam's showed Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to the country. He simply asked: "What the hell is happening to our country?"

Yes, what the hell? Marcos says he wants a paradigm shift, but he is following exactly what the old paradigm mapped out. And it's making some Filipino politicians become irrational, ignorant to the point of insanity, so much so that they forget the big picture.

Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy, Vice President of External Affairs of the Asian Century Philippines Strategic Studies Institute, said that "first and foremost, we are an agricultural country." "We need to modernize our agriculture. We need to have a digitalization of our agricultural sector. Also, we need to improve our infrastructure, soft infrastructure and hard infrastructure, with our agriculture," she stated, "and we can benefit from China."

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, former President of the Philippines, said "little did I realize then that China was in a class of its own. Rather than a competitor, China has proven to be a partner in development; it is a market for developing countries, a donor, and a provider of capital and technology."

They won't benefit from China long if Marcos keep his "paradigm" up. We understand the "security with the U.S. and economy with China" strategy. But security with the U.S. cannot come at the expense of China's interests. 

I said before, the U.S. may make the Philippines feel safe now, but it won't be so happy in the future. That future is quickly approaching.

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Source: CGTN